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Blanchard: il debito pubblico non è poi così male
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Carlo Clericetti (un commento dal suo blog)
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“Scoperta dell’acqua calda” è un modo di dire per definire qualcosa di scontato, e dunque una scoperta di nessun valore. E invece può
succedere a volte che ammettere l’ovvio possa avere quasi il valore di una rivoluzione: dipende da chi sia il protagonista e da quale sia il
contesto in cui questo avviene.
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Il paper: Public Debt and Low Interest Rates, by Olivier Blanchard, September 24, 2018 – Version 1
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Abstract:
The lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest
rates are low. I develop four main arguments.
First, I show that the current situation in which, in the United States,
safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long
time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is
like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt
without a later increase in taxes may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public
debt may have no fiscal cost
Second, even in the absence of fiscal costs, public debt however reduces
capital accumulation, and may have welfare costs. I show that
welfare costs may be smaller than typically assumed. The reason is that,
in effect, the safe rate is the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. If it
is lower than the growth rate, it indicates that the risk-adjusted rate of
return to capital is in fact low. The average risky rate however also plays
a role. I show how both the average risky rate and the average safe rate
determine welfare outcomes.
Third, I look at the evidence on the average risky rate, i.e. the average
marginal product of capital. While the measured profit rate has been
and is still quite high, the evidence from asset markets suggests that the
marginal product of capitalmay be lower, with the difference reflecting
either mismeasurement of capital or rents. This matters for debt: The
lower the marginal product, the lower the welfare cost of debt.
Fourth, I discuss a number of arguments against high public debt,
and in particular the existence of multiple equilibria where investors
believe debt to be risky, and by requiring a risk premium, increase the
fiscal burden and make debt effectively more risky. This is a very relevant
argument, but it does not have straightforward implications for
the appropriate level of debt.
My purpose in the lecture is not to argue for more public debt, especially
in the current political environment. It is to have a richer discussion
of the costs of debt and of fiscal policy than is currently the case.
